Tropical Storm Arthur set to bring heavy rain to North Carolina

2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

"Specifically, there is a 60 percent chance of above-normal season 30 percent chance of near-normal season, and just a 10 percent chance of below-normal season".

There's already been one storm this season. NOAA says, of those, 6-10 could cross the hurricane threshold (winds of 118 km/h or greater), and 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 and above, with winds of at least 178 km/h).

Tropical Storm Arthur dropped heavy rain on parts of eastern North Carolina Monday as forecasters issued warnings about strong winds and surf throughout the day. "As the tropical storm season approaches, organizations faced with balancing the impact of oncoming storms while attempting to maintain efforts to contain COVID-19 will need to prioritize resources and develop contingency plans in advance". In fact- its nearly becoming the norm- the last 5 seasons have had named storms before the official start of the season!

One reason, as usual, is El Nino, or in this case the lack of El Nino.

Though the season has not officially begun, the first named storm - Tropical Storm Arthur - brought wind and rain to North Carolina earlier this week before taking a northeastern turn away from land and into the Atlantic Ocean.

2020 Atlantic storm names
This list of storm names was last used six years ago. One storm has already been crossed off Tropical Storm Arthur

They attribute the forecast to warmer ocean temps and weaker vertical wind sheer, as well as possible development of La Niña.

An area of low pressure that formed near Florida and Cuba and moved gradually northward parallel to the southeastern US coast crossed the tropical storm threshold on May 16th. NOAA noted that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. "Learn about hurricane hazards and where to find our forecasts, then make a plan so that you and your family stay healthy and safe".

The season officially starts on June 1 and runs until November 30.

The Bermuda Weather Service said Tropical Storm Arthur would pass to the “distant northwest” of Bermuda today before it curved sharply and headed back towards the island.

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