Now, World Bank lowers India’s FY20 growth estimate to 5%

World Bank Nigeria Alaghodaro, Edo

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 percent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 percent to 2.5 percent in the current year.

Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing.

The World Bank Group forecasts that the Sub-Saharan Africa economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2020, recovering from 2.4 per cent growth recorded previous year.

Canisius Bihira, an economist based in Kigali, asserts the 8.1 forecasted growth is within an ideal range given the trend at which the domestic economy has been growing at. "We do expect an improvement, but overall, we also see a weaker growth outlook".

"Downside risks persist. The recovery is fragile", said World Bank Vice President Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

Kose said the trade war hit China's manufacturing and exports hard past year, holding growth to 6.1 percent, a 0.1 percentage-point reduction from the World Bank's June forecast.

"India, where weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies is expected to linger, growth is projected to slow to 5 per cent in FY 2019-20, which ends March 31 and recover to 5.8 per cent the following fiscal year", the World Bank said in its January report of "2020 Global Economic Prospects".

The World Bank said that economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.

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This will be followed by Ivory Coast with a 7% growth rate and Senegal, which shares the 3rd spot with Ghana, with a growth rate of 6.8%.

The report tied the growth in Sub-Saharan African countries to the activities of major trading partners such as China, the European Union member states and the United States. This rebound is not broad-based; instead, it assumes the improved performance of a small group of large economies, some of which are emerging from a period of substantial weakness.

The report said, "In Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa - the three largest economies in the region - growth was subdued in 2019, remaining well below historical averages and contracting for a fifth consecutive year on a per capita basis".

Trump's get-tough trade policies aimed at lowering America's huge trade deficits as a way to boost US manufacturing jobs have resulted in an increase in protectionist barriers in the United States and many other nations.

In the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia - growth was estimated at 3.7 percent in 2019 but is seen falling to 3.1 percent this year.

The forecast suggested that regional growth was projected to pick up to 2.4 percent in 2020 and about 2.8 percent in 2021-2022, as infrastructure investment and business climate reforms proceeded.

The World Bank, however, noted the lowering of trade tensions between the United States and China after a so-called Phase One agreement was reached between the two nations.

Among other threats to growth, the World Bank cited weak productivity gains in many countries and a sharp rise in global debt burdens.

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