India's economic growth rate has halved in just three years

India's economic growth rate has halved in just three years

The gross domestic product data released yesterday showed consumer demand, private investment and exports all struggling, resulting in a year-on-year growth figure that was below the 4.7 percent forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

India was the world's fastest-growing economy until previous year, posting quarterly growth rates of as high of 9.4% in 2016.

Slowing and Steadily Losing the Race: India's GDP grew at the slowest pace in six years at 4.5% in the July-September Q2 quarter.

Manufacturing growth contracted 1 per cent as against 6.9 per cent growth last year during the same quarter, while the "agriculture, forestry and fishing" sector recorded a growth rate of 2.1 per cent as against 4.9 per cent last year.

For last over a month or so, both domestic and worldwide rating agencies had cut the gross domestic product or GDP growth forecast, ranging between 6.2 and 4.7 per cent this financial year.

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Though the GDP growth print of 4.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY20 is dire news for the Indian economy, the CSO's latest numbers are unlikely to have shock value for the markets. "International Monetary Fund has projected India's GDP growth at 6.1 per cent in FY 2019-20 and 7 per cent in FY 2020-21 in its October 2019 report on World Economic Outlook", said Chakraborty.

In October, the Reserve Bank of India cut GDP growth estimate for the year sharply down to 6.1% from 6.9% earlier after it admitted that consumer demand remained sluggish. Official statistics show that the slowest growth rate was 5.5 per cent in 2012-13. This is the lowest GDP quarter in 6 years. He said that the falling in the GDP is not surprising rather it is expected as the index of industrial production, core industries, credit growth were showing that the growth in this quarter will be slow.

Economists expect India's central bank to announce yet another rate cut on Thursday to combat a liquidity crunch caused by the collapse of India's shadow banking sector. "India Ratings and Research also revised its GDP growth forecast to 5.6% for the annual financial year for year 20". Second thing is nominal growth of GDP is 6.1 percent which can haunt India's dream to become 5 trillion dollar target in 2024-25. This also marks the sixth consecutive quarter of sagging growth. A favourable low base effect, however, would be seen third quarter onwards, which may help push the headline growth number higher.

Some economists, however, fear a contrary economic scenario in the upcoming quarters. Now the rate of expansion has slumped to just half that.

"Today's weak print was well telegraphed, and while the Reserve Bank of India did not project this kind of weakness, we do not think their view on growth trajectory will change materially", said Rahul Bajoria, senior economist with Barclays Bank Plc in Mumbai.

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