Retail inflation jumps to 4.62 pc in October

The inflation in the food basket spiked to 7.89 per cent in October 2019 as against 5.11 per cent the preceding month

"However, core inflation has collapsed to 3.44 per cent in October versus 4.01 per cent in September due to broad based weakness in demand".

On Tuesday, the ONS also revealed that wage growth had slowed to 3.6% in September from 3.8% the previous month.

"Consumer price inflation looks likely to remain close to 1.5% over the rest of the year and through the early months of 2020 - and it could conceivably edge down further".

The average cost of pleasure crafts declined 2.9 per cent. For pulses and related products, retail inflation rose to 11.72 percent. The pace of normalisation in vegetable prices will be the key driver of the trend in food inflation over the next few months, according to Nayar.

Meanwhile, CPIH inflation also eased to 1.5 percent year-on-year from prior month's 1.7 percent.

'Either way it is still highly unlikely that we get any movements in rates before the year is out, with the final policy decision due just one week after the General Election'.

Pant added that with the economy in slowdown, "growth concerns will dominate the RBI's monetary policy review", and that RBI will "continue with accommodative policy and expect further rate cut in the policy review of December 2019".

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"The sharp uptick in the CPI inflation in October 2019 has contrasted with the industrial contraction recorded in September 2019". Higher inflation rate might keep the RBI from going ahead with another policy rate cut in its next monetary policy meeting scheduled on December 5.

Notably, this is the first month since August 2018 that retail inflation has breached the 4 per cent medium-term target set by the Reserve Bank of India.

Almost 85 percent of respondents forecast retail inflation, due on 12 November, to breach the RBI's medium-term target.

Retail inflation, calculated on the basis of the CPI, rose in the wake of high vegetable prices, especially in onion and tomatoes across the country.

A measure of core inflation, which excludes energy, fuel, alcohol and tobacco, was unchanged at 1.7%, as expected by economists in the Reuters poll.

On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is now at 1.8%, vs. consensus of 1.7% and 1.7% previously.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said the figures were "helpful for consumer purchasing power", but could fan expectations of a Bank of England rate cut if the economy continues to struggle.

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